Checkmate in Perak?

So the High Court Ruling is out. YB Nizar has been declared the legitimate MB of Perak.

First reactions among the PR is of course pure elation. Completely understandable, since it was a totally unexpected ruling. I mean, come on - did anyone REALLY expect that the courts will rule AGAINST the BN? In Malaysia? (Maybe those guys believe in the Johor Bigfoot too - it could be a good idea to sell jungle tour packages to them!)

Anyway, the skeptic in me can't help but be a bit...well, skeptical.

Is it REALLY a victory?

And such a benevolent judgement by our correct, correct, correct courts so conveniently coming at the heels of Najib's offer of an olive branch to the Perak PR govt?

Hmmm....too coincidental isn't it? And we all know that there are NO political coincidences in Malaysia, right!

If we can accept the premise that things are not as they seem, we can begin to explore the consequences of such a decision further other than just "now, Nizar can legitimately petition to dissolve the assembly and hold state elections". While that is a possibility, other possible outcomes become obvious when we apply some political strategic thinking into this situation (I am more inclined to think of the alternative, especially since do not accept this court decision at face value because I do not trust Najib to do the right thing one single bit!).

So here goes. The Eyes Wide Open list of Possible Outcome in Perak (EWOPOP)

1) YB Nizar petitions Tuanku Sultan to dissolve the assembly. Tuanku assents. State elections held. Pakatan thrashes the BN. End of story. The PR's and their supporters dream come true!

2) YB Nizar petitions Tuanku Sultan to dissolve the assembly. His majesty refuses again as is his prerogative. YB Nizar calls for a sitting to try and govern Perak as the MB from the minority party. With the Dewan completely controlled by the BN, YB Nizar is a sitting duck. BN proposes a motion of no confidence to remove YB Nizar as MB. The motion passes. The BN has officially and legally legitimised themselves as the Perak state government.

3) Tuanku Sultan does not assent to dissolving the DUN. YB Nizar does not call for a DUN sitting, instead waiting out the 6-month automatic dissolution period. The High Court decision goes through the appeals process through the Court of Appeals and Federal Court. That's 2 more shots for the correct, correct, correct judges to give the BN what it wants. In the meantime, the state remains ungovernable. This is a really untenable option as it would mean that Perak would be without a government for almost a year!

4) Tuanku Sultan does not assent to dissolving the DUN. The cases are being appealed with the PR trying to prolong the case while Nizar waits out the DUN's 6-month period. The BN Speaker calls for a sitting, and scenario 2 happens.

Off hand I can think of this 4 possibilities.

So is it really over in Perak? While I hope so, I really don't think it is, at all.

We'll see what happens when Nizar meets YM Raja Nazrin tomorrow.