Which Is More Likely?

I had written a couple of articles in the past couple of days about the UMNO-MCA rift, that looked pretty irreconciliable. It was just a matter of whether the MCA had the balls to stand up to the bully (they'd better if they want to salvage any pretense of representing the Chinese).

The first time i put forward this theory was in an article on the HartalMSM blog. Then I followed up with yesterday's post with various quotes from the MSM which pointed to this complete breakdown in cooperation.

Today's news however was a treasure trove of evidence that it was game over for the BN!

FIRST: The UMNO AG openly saying that the MCA's past Transport Ministers' letters of assurance were in fact Letters of Government Guarantee, despite the past and present Ministers' vehement denials. Hey if the AG says it is, what hope is there in the UMNO courts, huh?

So what this means is that if the PKFZ case really makes it to court, the MCA Transport Ministers will be in big doo doo!

Now, WHICH IS MORE LIKELY?

A. The case will really make it to court and the MCA Transport Ministers heads will roll.

B. The case won't actually result in the prosecution of the MCA top dogs, but their image will be forever destroyed and they can never face Malaysian Chinese again.

My guess?

"A" is not very feasible, I think. A cornered dog, even if it is a running dog, is dangerous. If the MCA top dogs were going to be prosecuted, it might just push the other top dogs over the edge and they MIGHT actually find the nuts to go down fighting. Now, I'm sure the MCA has plenty of dirt on UMNO flers. If I were UMNO, I won't push my luck that far!

"B" is more likely. It's clear that UMNO doesn't give a shit about MCA, and more so in recent months than usual. Coupled with the Utusan attacks, the PKFZ scandal blowup, and UMNO's abandonment all pretense of cooperating with MCA - this would give the theory that UMNO is going to let MCA bite the dust (and probably hurry them along the way) some credulity.

Why would UMNO abandon it's non-Malay partner of 60 years?

Simple - they are wooing PAS to form a Ketuanan Melayu govt are they not? If that's their goal, they wouldn't need the Chinese now, wouldn't they?

if it's really true - curtains for sure la the MCA!

THEN: Tiong King Sing revealing that Ong Tee Keat received private favours like rides on private jet and a RM10 million "loan". Now, these kinds of revelations don't just damage OTK, but also Tiong. It would mean that Tiong was offering favours and OTK was accepting. you can't prosecute one party and not the other right? So why did Tiong make such revelations so brazenly? Isn't he afraid of the consequences to himself?

Now, WHICH IS MORE LIKELY?

A. Tiong is thinking "if I'm going down, I'm taking him with me!"

B. Tiong's got a GET OUT OF JAIL FREE card on condition that he gets rid of OTK.

"A" is HIGHLY unlikely - because it has NEVER happened before in the entire history of mega scandals in Malaysia. Most of the people on the past who were unfortunate enough to take the fall normally drop out of the radar for a while then retire in style without rocking the boat.

That leaves option "B". This I think is a more believable outcome.

Let's recap. OTK was elected Prez of MCA and CSL Dep Prez. OTK became Transport Minister like all the MCA prez before him since decades ago, since that Ministry has always been reserved for the MCA Prez.

Then Najib announced his reforms. He wanted someone to liaise with all the BN parties in the Pakatan-held states. This was a specially created National-level BARISAN position tasked with turning the political tides. By all calculations, this was a BIG DEAL because this was not a MCA "reserve" position.

Who was chosen? Chua Soi Lek! Najib prefered the services of a sex dvd star to the Prez of the most senior party in the BN? Incredible!!

What a slap in the face for OTK - the message is crystal clear: the sex star is more important than the MCA prez!

So, with this in mind - is it likely that for some reason, Najib no longer sees OTK as useful. Is that also why OTK is left to fend for himself in the whole PKFZ scandal?

It would seem so.

So the writing is pretty clear on the wall - it's in BOLD and ITALICS and COLOURED RED.

The BN is finished.

Those of you who still think that the BN is the only viable government - please wake up!!